One of
the major sources of a UFO report is an astronomical event. I
have already demonstrated how stars
can be mistaken for UFOs but there are other phenomena that
generate UFO reports. The other most likely sources are
meteors and re-entering space debris. If an individual reports
a UFO that traversed the night sky and then disappeared, one
must first determine if the event were simply an astronomical
event of this nature. Even if the witness claims the object
disappeared beyond the horizon or seemed to appear to land
just beyond the trees, it can still be a meteor or space
debris.
After
examining many reports of known fireballs and re-entering
space debris, I have discovered that the average observer can
make many mistakes in their observations. Many will claim that
the fireball landed just over the next ridge, often
overestimate apparent size, and sometimes get their sense of
direction incorrect. UFOlogist John Keel once wrote:
Early
in my own investigations I discovered that the average
witness could not even pinpoint true north- even when he
or she had lived in the area all their life...Estimates of
altitude are much more difficult to make even for
experienced pilots. And at night it is almost impossible
to judge the altitude of an object (usually just a light
of unknown size...estimates of UFO speeds are usually
inaccurate and altitude estimates are questionable unless
the object appears near something of a known altitude -
such as a mountain or a conventional aircraft.
(Spencer and Evans 187-188)
Understanding
that witnesses sometimes make mistakes is important in
identifying the true source of UFO reports. To accept their
statements as being accurate is to ignore the fact that, as
Astronomer Frank Drake makes clear, "the human mind
does not always have perfect sensors; it is an imperfect
computer in dealing with the stimuli it receives" (Sagan
and Page 257).
BASIC
METEOR FACTS
Meteors
are usually small objects the size of a grain of sand that
plummet through the earth's atmosphere at a height of 100km.
One wonders how it is possible to see such a small object at
such a great distance. The reason is that one is actually
seeing the ionization of atoms surrounding the path of the
meteor. As the atoms return to their normal state, they emit
light. The bigger the meteoroid, the more atoms are ionized
and the brighter it appears. Many fireballs are about the size
of a softball or maybe a bit larger. The larger the meteor,
the more likely it is to strike the ground. They usually
disappear from visual observation at an altitude of 20 km but
the remnant still plummets towards the earth. This remnant is
called a meteorite.
Sometimes
a meteor will leave a smoke-like trail called an ion train.
These are atoms that do not return to their stable state
readily and can take up to an hour to do so. I have personally
seen ion trains last 8-10 minutes. However, there are records
of some fireballs producing ion trains that lasted over an
hour.
Meteors
can also be seen in the daytime but this is infrequent. One
can recall the great fireball of August 10, 1972 was visible
over the western United States for a significant period of
time. The meteor was filmed by one camera for 26 seconds and
calculations put its duration at over a minute in length. You
can read more about this meteor at http://medicine.wustl.edu/~kronkg/1972.html.
These
conditions set the scenario that meteors can be seen for long
periods of time and can be misinterpreted as UFOs.
RE-ENTERING
SPACE DEBRIS
This is a
little trickier phenomenon. Unlike meteors, space debris
usually enters the earth's atmosphere at a much slower rate.
As the debris enters the atmosphere, it breaks up into smaller
parts. The end result is multiple lights and trails being left
in the sky. The phenomenon can last for much longer than the
average meteor (minutes compared to seconds). Meteors usually
have speeds around 40-70 km/sec. However, the speed of
re-entering space debris is much less than this. Usually space
debris will enter the atmosphere at a speed of on the order of
less than 10 km/sec.
THE CASE
OF ZOND IV
The
single most interesting study on how these events can be
misinterpreted as UFOs was revealed during the Condon study.
Dr. William Hartman evaluated one "mass sighting" of
a UFO that was determined to be the re-entry of a Russian
booster stage for the satellite Zond IV. Several of the
reports given by witnesses sounded incredible. Here are a few
reports:
It was
shaped like a fat cigar, in my estimation. I was impressed
that it seemed of considerable size, the size of one of our
largest airplane fuselages, or larger...It appeared to have
square-shaped windows...I thought I caught a glimpse of a
metallic look about the fuselage...It appeared to me that the
fuselage was constructed of many pieces of flat sheets of
metal-like material with a "riveted together
look."...The many "windows" seemed to be lit up
from the inside of the fuselage with light that was quite
bright...From out of the back end of the fuselage came a wide
(roughly about the width of the fuselage) long, reddish-orangish-yellowish
stream of dusty fire. It seemed as though particles of dust
were on fire...I was impressed with what looked to me like low
altitude of the craft at this point of my sighting-I thought,
around 1000 feet or less... (Sagan and Page 155-156)
The
object flew at tree-top level and was seen very clearly since
it was just a few yards away. All of the observers saw a long
jet airplane, looking like a vehicle without wings. It was on
fire both in front and behind. All the observers observed many
windows in the UFO. My cousin said, "If there had been
anybody in the UFO near the windows, I would have seen
them."
The next
morning we heard it was supposed to have been a meteor. But
the other observers and myself know the UFO could not have
been a meteor because meteors don't have windows and turn
corners like IT did.
(Sagan and Page 160)
Dr.
Hartmann writes in his study that there were two factors in
effect with this report. The first was the "excited ness
effect". He defined this as, "observers with the
poorest observations are most likely to submit reports"
(Sagan and Page 19). The second factor was the "airship
effect". This is defined as, "observers conceive
of moving lights in a dark sky as connected in a single
entity" (Sagan and Page 19). Dr. Hartmann also
recognized that out of 78 reports received only 30 were of
sufficient value to evaluate. Of these 30 reports, Dr.
Hartmann stated that only one-fourth indicated the object was
re-entering space debris and half did not provide enough
information to draw a conclusion. The final fourth was
entirely misleading and pointed away from re-entering space
debris. The two examples above are some of these misleading
reports. Dr. Hartmann's study is on line at http://www.ncas.org/condon/s6chap02.htm.
THE CASE
OF THE TSYKLON ROCKET
On March
30-31, 1993, there was a repeat of the Zond IV incident. Many
fisherman who saw the re-entering debris as a "flying
catamaran", which passed overhead in complete silence
at about 800 foot altitude (Brookesmith 144). This was another
repeat of the airship effect. Even more interesting is the
plots made based on the reports of witnesses shown in UFO: The
Government Files (Brookesmith 145). While a majority showed
the track of the UFO to be in a North-South or West-East
direction, several indicated it was moving South-North or
East-West. This is probably due to the inability of the
witnesses to give accurate descriptions of directions or not
realizing which direction was North (as Keel pointed out).
THE CASE
OF THE JAPANESE SATELLITE
On August
12, 1986 many witnesses across the United States saw an
incredible UFO display. Amateur astronomers saw it and
reported it fairly accurately. In northern Maine, Wayne Madea
saw "a pinpoint of light, like a satellite, travelling
with a cloud" (Frazier, Karr and Nickell 162). The most
interesting reports went to NUFORC (The National UFO Reporting
Center). Robert Gribble told James Oberg "I got no
reports of it moving across the sky" (Frazier, Karr
and Nickell 165). This is amazing since the object did move
across the sky. Was it possible that the reports to NUFORC
consisted mainly of observers who were taken in by the "excitedness
effect"? Oberg also states that CUFOS (The Center for UFO
Studies) had similar reports. Sherman Larson told him that his
calls stated, "In each case, witnesses said an object
appeared to have exploded in the sky and then moved into a
cloud" (Frazier, Karr and Nickell 165). It appears
that UFO centers draw the reports from persons that are most
likely to link such events to alien spaceships or unknown
phenomenon.
THE CASE
OF THE LIGHTS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN US PT1
On
November 14, 1997, a vast array of lights was seen passing
over the Northwestern US. Peter Davenport of NUFORC reported
this on the Art Bell radio program as an extraordinary UFO
event. In the database, there are 22 reports from that night.
Here are some excerpts indicating that it was satellite debris
re-entering the Earth's atmosphere:
There
were two parallel primary bright objects with multiple bright
objects following, much like one would expect of a comet or a
shooting fireworks display...My comment was it looks like a
satelight breaking apart and burning up, but again it was very
low on the horizon.
(Davenport,
Sightings Online)
Bright
white lights, long tails of light that appeared to dissipate
and then return; almost as if there were streaks of smoke or
haze along with the lights. Seemed to be three or four large
ones and several small ones all flying in the same pattern.
(Davenport,
Sightings Online)
I
observed some objects moving across the northern sky from left
to right at about a 45 degree angle. They appeared to be in
formation. Some of the were trailing sparks...looked kind of
like a childs sparler used on the 4th of July.
(Davenport,
Sightings Online)
2 groups
of 10 to 15 burning objects going from W by Nw sky towards E
by NE sky moving much slower than a shooting star; moving at a
constant speed. only 3 or 4 object remained visible as they
reached the horizon to the NE (Davenport,
Sightings Online)
Some
reports included inaccurate information in them such as
altitude:
I was
driving west on 196th St SW,in Edmonds, when I noticed a mass
of bright lights in the sky to my north. I could not identify
what they were. At first I thought they were a squadron of
helicoptors flying in formation with their lights on. I
immediately pulled over and got out of my truck. I looked up
and saw the mass, moving very slowly to the east. It looked to
be about 3,000 feet off of the ground.
(Davenport,
Sightings Online)
Then
there are those who demonstrated the "airship
effect" and "excitedness effect". There were
six reports describing such. This is over 1/4 the reports and
a greater percentage than Condon's. After reading the Condon
report and Hartmann's study, I was amused to see that dogs are
affected by space debris re-entry!
There
were 3, it seemed. Each had 3, I think, bright white lights in
front of them. I think there may have been something in
between those 3 lights, but I couldn't see it clearly. One of
those 3 lights seemed to be a bit bigger and brighter than the
other two. They each had these "tails" that were
golden, and came out of those front lights like perfect
rectangles! I mean, the tops and bottoms were a perfect
straight line, and there was golden glittery stuff in them.
The "glitter" was of different sizes, too. Not all
the same size. And NO glitter was outside of those rectangles!
(Davenport, Sightings
Online)
Looked at lights
and started to count them there were about seven pairs of
lights travelling west to east ones in front seemed travelling
faster and ones in the middle and in back seemed to be
hovering then moving and hovering again. I watched for about
two minutes and then went over the horizon. It was like a
light show and very eloquent looking. My dog is usually hyper
and follows me everywhere especially outside but when I went
outside she wouldn't move from the door and I had to walk
around her. she was not herself for the rest of the night.
Also my t.v. didn't work right I had to unplug it to turn it
off.and other stereo equipment, VCRs. And primestar didn't
work correctly. (Davenport,
Sightings Online)
If these were high
in the atmosphere, then the grey object that was moving with
these lights had to be huge. Because it was close enough to be
illuminated by these lights. Only a jet could have kept pace
with these lights, I saw no wings, no undercarriage as on a
blimp/zepplin. (Davenport,
Sightings Online)
Large object seen
traveling northeast at a slow rate of speed approximately
300-500 feet above the ground and 250 to 300 yards from
observer. Object was rectangular, and was about the size of a
football field. Appeared to be translucent with reddish/orange
lights of different intensity surrounding the perimeter,
however, the dark superstructure could be seen, outlined by
the lights. (Davenport, Sightings
Online)
A large, well
lit flying wedged shaped object flying very low over my
house without any noise...There were many lights outlining
the wedge shape. They seemed to be about the same
brightness although some appeared to be reddish while
others blue. (Davenport,
Sightings Online)
We witnessed
several, at least twenty, lights off to the north, toward
washington, moving in an easterly direction through the
gorge. The lights seem to be contained within a glowing
nebula. At the front of the formation was a dark object,
larger than an airplane. Lights looked like streamers
breaking off the main body. Object moved quickly up the
gorge away from the coast. It definitly did not move west.
(Davenport, Sightings
Online)
There appeared to be a desire to believe
that the re-entry was a cover story. Didn't UFOlogists learn
from previous incidents? Peter Davenport apparently did not.
He posted a summary on the NUFORC Website and also included a
press release. Unfortunately, it is the wrong press release.
Note that this event occurred in 1997 but Peter posted the
release No. 41-96 of November 29, 1996 (Davenport, November
Online)! This became a point of discussion on the UFOMIND
website and was the reason to disagree with the booster
re-entry answer since the debris described re-entered on
November 17. However, nobody noticed the 1996 date and just
jumped on the November dating. I am not a subscriber but gave
an email to Ted Viens, who corrected the discussion group. The
opposition to the idea of the booster re-entry quickly began
to fade at this point. Is the research this sloppy such that
any report that indicates an object is a "genuine"
UFO is accepted but any report indicating that the event was a
re-entry is rejected?
UFOlogists have floated several reasons
for the discrepancy in the descriptions. Probably the most
absurd is the fact that UFOs make themselves visible during
the time that space debris re-enters the atmosphere! Amazing
that such incredible craft that constantly evade detection
need to resort to such methods. The proposition is ridiculous.
If only all UFOlogists really read the reports and did a bit
of research, they would be able to sift through the reports
and discover the true cause of the "sightings". Dr.
Hartmann would shake his head and wonder if anyone ever read
his article about Zond IV. However, a few level headed
UFOlogists were able to come to the correct conclusions. Ted
Viens wrote:
This makes it easy
to understand how popular misconceptions can sensationalize a
common re-entry. The many ways that a booster can break up and
the many aerodynamic forces affecting the varied pieces can
easily explain the various fireballs and their paths. Sadly,
several of the postings on the NUFORC page clearly described
the how's and why's of this being an SL-12 reentry. Yet this
did nothing to stem the mystification and glamorization of the
event. (Viens Online)
Gary Val Tenuta wrote the following
about the event:
...I'm suggesting the
possibility that the excitement generated by the spectacular
sightings of the rocket debris could have activated a
temporary disturbance in the "stable illusion" of
some people's personal realities, thus allowing their
unconscious intellects an opportunity to create a momentary
illusion of a an anomalous group of lights, a hovering disk,
or whatever. What the person believes he sees, as Budden
points out, is determined by whatever related ideas or images
the UC
(Unconscious Intellect) was able to grab, at a moments notice,
from the storehouse of the persons memory banks. Think of all
the related items that are stored up in our memories these
days: visual images from the X-Files, Unsolved Mysteries,
Strange Universe; the movies like Independence Day and Men In
Black; alien Grey's in car commercials; Whitley Strieber's
"Communion" book cover; thoughts, ideas and images
broadcast daily by radio programs such as Jeff Rense's
Sightings On The Radio and Art Bell's overnight program.
(Tenuta Online)
At least somebody is learning a little
but sadly this is not the case for most UFOlogists.
THE
CASE OF THE LIGHTS OVER THE NORTH WESTERN US PT2
Just when you think the witnesses in the
Northwest had learned their lessons, we receive another rash
of reports following the re-entry of a rocket booster engine
on September 1, 1999. Of the twenty-one reports I found in the
NUFORC database, several were very unclear on what was
visually seen. Most indicated space debris re-entering the
atmosphere. There were no "airship effect" reports
that were distinctly reported in the database. However, some
indicated that they felt the re-entering debris were craft.
One of the reports may have indicated why the "airship
effect" was not evident in some of the reports:
I saw a meteor with a
pale, golden white glow, about a quarter the size of my fist,
came from the northwest at about the speed of a fighter jet. I
expected the meteor to disintegrate, as most do after they
fall to the earth, but as it approached zenith, the object
began to have a glowing white trail after it, so I assumed it
was a fighter jet, but the object made no sound like a jet and
made no jet trail. A little past zenith, in the eastern part
of the sky the object began to slow down and without any
indication, the object split into four separate parts, a
bright, large portion that continued on the original path of
northwest to southeast, and three smaller pieces that went
northeast, northwest and southeast.
(Davenport, Sightings Online)
As the group of
objects passed slowly, almost "drifting" past my
windshield higher than my aircraft, I could see flames coming
from each object and a comet-like tail behind each object. My
next thought was that it might be a huge aircraft breaking up,
some objects were long like a wing or odd shapes. However, it
was not descending, but rather was moving straight and slowly
across the sky almost appearing to be level. It had the
appearance of flaming, huge objects, in formation, or in a
group. There was one large object following the group somewhat
behind the others. I thought it might be space debri but they
all appeared too large and too many. (commercial
pilot) (Davenport, Sightings Online)
The fact that the debris started as one
light may have allowed many of the "excitable"
witnesses to rule out a single craft with lights. Still, some
reports were very erroneous:
At approx 10:30pm Wed. 9/1, I saw an
orange something that I thought was an airplane on fire
and going slowly down towards the ocean. (Davenport,
Sightings Online)
The closest report to the "airship
effect" is listed below:
No blinking just solid
light. travelling in perfect formation. either one large
object or 3 small ones. travelling faster than jet or plane
yet slower than a shooting star. No sparks or trails seen. travelled
the sky from left to right headed towards direction of rising
moon. when got to where moon would have been (was not up at
the time) they? changed direction heading away from field of
view as if it was moving towards the moon. light faded out at
this time. (Davenport, Sightings
Online)
However, NUFORC was not the only place
witnesses could provide input to and UFOlogist Steve Moreno
determined that the events involved an extraterrestrial craft
based on two reports he received. The first was from a boy
named Ben who told Steve,
A huge black
triangular object was seen slowly traversing across the sky
very close at what he estimated to be 300' off the ground. It
was witnessed at aprox. a 60 degree angle travelling from a
Northwest to a Northeast direction, seeming to be possibly
over "Air Base Parkway" and heading toward the North
side of Travis. This object was completely silent, massive and
solid in its structure, as the star fields behind it became
blocked as it moved along in a slow controlled
trajectory...Ben described the object as a huge black mass
which might have gone un-noticed if it were not for this
trailing flame which shone behind it. As he stared in awe at
this huge mass in such a close proximity he began to look for
details on it. He noticed several small independent white
lights, which were spaced randomly on the object, and emitted
a continuous white light. He noticed that the lights revealed
some sort of piping apparatus details around them, on the
surface of the craft. (Moreno
Online)
Steve then compares this to a report
made by a man named John, who told him:
...that the tail was a
light colored, or a star colour, and that it didn't just come
out of what he might of considered to be the exhaust, but came
off the entire surface object and quite a ways back, longer
then the actual object. He stated it was like a trail or
something. He described the trail having a luminescent
sparkling effect which just randomly dissipated off behind the
object. He compared it to sparks coming off a campfire at
night and disappearing into sky. However he did not get the
impression it was a flame... When asked about any discernible
geometric shape or solidity he stated it was a very dark
night, and that if not for this erie trail which followed it,
it might have gone unnoticed. He stated it was almost as if
you could see through parts of it. He described it as having a
ghost type effect.. That you could see the outline of it, but
it was hard to tell where the object ended and space began. He
speculated that this was due to the tails erie effect however.
He mentioned having the distinct impression there was
definitely a controlled solid object.
(Moreno Online)
So the airship effect did take hold in
some cases but at a lower rate. It appears that the object
broke up and some witnesses only saw portions of the debris.
When Moreno posted his conclusions on the newsgroups, I
responded with references to Hartmann's study. I received no
reply and it appears Moreno ignored my posting. He continues
to profess that it was a single object.
It is clear from the detailed reports on
this local case that this incident was NOT a returning rocket
booster or space debris. It is also clear it was not a
conventional air craft. Only two possibilities remain, either
a super-secret government Black Budget craft, or an
extraterrestrial UFO. (Moreno
Online)
Moreno examined all the reports
available at NUFORC, but he chose to arrive at a different
conclusion based on two eyewitnesses (one a young
impressionable boy of 13). This does not make a case when
comparing them to reports made at the same time describing
space debris. Moreno has become highly selective in his data
used for evaluation. How can this be considered research?
THE CASE OF THE REENTRY
OVER FLORIDA
Only 6 days later, another Russian
booster rocket re-entered over the US. This time it happened
in the Southeast over the Gulf of Mexico. It was Florida
residents, who made the reports. The NUFORC database was full
of "airship effect" reports. In this case there were
only 6 reports but four of these displayed the "airship
effect".
There were at least 5
very distinct upright disks or spheres, the first being a
pulsating green, and the other 4 behind it bright white (and
all exactly the same size). The disks were spaced evenly apart
and each had an INTENSE beam of light shining from one to the
next. It had been raining so we knew the object(s) were under
2000' (clouds did not interrupt the light), and the object was
travelling (apparently) the speed of a cessna aircraft, but
was obviously much higher. The size of each disk was about 1/4
moon, or the size of your thumbnail at arms length, but MUCH
brighter. I followed the object visually for over 20 seconds
from my direct west, until it disappeared over my southern
horizon (about where Disney World is). I've worked midnight
shifts for over 3 years, the last 2 sitting exactly where I
was; in my car facing south, and I have seen planets, meteors,
low and high flying planes and jets, bugs, you name it...this
was NONE of those things. By the way...it did not make ANY
sound at all, OR leave a visible com-trail. My estimate is
that if it was a single object would have HAD to be (at the
apparent height; just under 2000 feet), at least a quarter of
a mile long. Please take note that the "leading"
disk was green and pulsing, there were NO "trails"
of any kind, and there were VERY clearly visible light
"beams" (equal in size to each disk/sphere), between
each of the 5. (Davenport, Sightings
Online)
5:00 A.M. ON 9-7-99.on the right
windshield area i noticed a low large cigar shaped object with
3 lights (bright) hovering above the telephone poles. the
craft was a military standard silver color with no sound.
Traveling from north to south was an
object that I only could describe as a glass cigar tube with
smoke in it and three equally spaced blue lights. It was not
foggy that night. The moon was clearly visible.
(Davenport, Sightings Online)
...this object was
moving way to fast for a plane and had no visible navigation
lights. It was emmiting an orange glow from the back which
made the contrail more visible. I couldn't determine a shape
from the angle I was from it but I could make out a large
form. I thought it might be a fighter aircraft with it's
afterburners on but it was to large to be that high up and
still be seen. The contrail was also very wide. After it got
low in the East, I saw the orange turn to red for just a brief
moment and it started to fade. It seemed like it was losing
altitude and making a southeast turn and it was about the 9
o'clock position at this time, very low and far to the east.
(Davenport, Sightings
Online)
Also, we again see how people may make
mistakes in what they think they saw:
Went out to get paper
and saw bright light in the sky. Looked like a huge plane
exploding at first. Bright flames at rear bluish in color.
Appeared to be crashing then it stopped and moved several
times then it disappeared in what looked like a cloud.
Hundreds of people in area saw it but we were told it was a
russian rocket destructing. But I saw it change
directions?????? (Davenport, Sightings
Online)
Remember it was at 5AM and a semi-alert
person could misperceive a direction change very easily.
George Filer, of MUFON, incorporated
another observation in his Filer's Files for September 24,
1999.
An individual was
driving from Arcadia toward Sarasota between 4:30 and 5:00 AM.
Suddenly, the cab of his truck lit up three miles east of
Myakka State Park. He rolled down his window to see where it
was coming from and was shocked to see a huge object 75 yards
from him. The driver said, He saw a spaceship!" (his
words). He said, it started out as a bright star and it got
"real bright." It was a football field and a half
long (450 feet). The UFO had a blimp like shape and was brown
gray in color. It had windows that were 15 or 20 feet long by
8 inches wide with a bluish light emanating from them. It
stopped parallel to him and moved towards him before backing
off a bit. Then it departed faster than the speed of light. It
had an intense narrow cylindrical beam of light coming out of
the back of it that left a little smoke for a fraction of a
second when it took off silently. After watching for a while
he panicked and drove off at high speed with the UFO following
for a while. Then it abruptly took off He described the whole
event and size of the spaceship as overwhelming. (Filer
Online)
In this posting of UFO reports, there
was no indication that George was going to offer the
possibility that this was the re-entering debris despite the
fact that the witness saw the event at the same time as the
re-entry!
Another "UFOlogist", Ignatius
Graffeo, posted a video file on his website of this event and
then claimed it was the "smoking gun" evidence of a
true UFO. Ignatius stated:
I'm amazed how
such a sighting could be mistaken for a rocket booster
re-entering the atmosphere! The craft was observed to be
moving very slowly. It tilts and reorients itself. This is not
what a falling rocket booster does! The news report is rife
with disinformation and confusion. It is truly frightening how
this type of craft can flaunt itself in our skies and be
explained away and dismissed so easily. This video speaks for
itself. (Graffeo
Online)
However, when I examined the video, I
was amazed to see a classic case of reentering space debris.
Are UFOlogists this gullible? Has Graffeo ever seen space
debris reenter the earth's atmosphere before? Graffeo's
knowledge of space is very limited when one examines this
statement he makes:
Seems like these
"booster" rockets are a convenient cover story. It
used to be meteors, temperature inversions, swamp gas, or the
planet Venus. Now it's Russian boosters. If this is true, why
aren't our local civil defense authorities concerned about
warning people in populated areas on falling booster tonnage?
And why are "Russian" boosters all of a sudden
falling across US territory?? That last "booster"
(item # 25761) which fell over the Western part of the country
wasn't even in NORADS catalog! (Graffeo
Online)
Graffeo makes several errors in his
statements. First, the Russians launched several rockets in
late August 1999 and this is the reason for so many events.
Second, Booster #25671 was in the catalogue but Graffeo failed
to do the proper research and quoted a misinformed source! The
individual he quotes failed to understand the basic numbering
system for space debris and that the SL-12 booster is a common
vehicle used by the Russians (he proclaimed that there were
hundreds of pieces of this booster in orbit but in reality it
was different boosters from different launches). The reason he
did not have 25671 listed is because the database apparently
only included debris currently in orbit. 25671 had already
reentered the atmosphere. Had Graffeo looked at Space Warning
Bulletin #551, he would have discovered the following:
Actual decays/landings of payload
spacecraft and rocket bodies (R/B) only. Additional
information is not available.
Designations
|
Common Name
|
1999
|
1999-010E(25761)
|
R/B Upper stage of Proton-K
|
02 SEP
|
1999-047C(25898)
|
R/B Proton-K
|
07 Sep
|
(Bell Online)
NOTE: The dates listed are for Universal
Time (UT) or Greenwich time (GMT) and the date of 02 September
is actually 01 September for those in the Pacific Northwest.
Third, and finally, space debris
normally burns up high in the atmosphere. Very rarely does any
survive the plunge downward. The space warning bulletins are
adequate since it is assumed no debris will fall on the
public's heads. When such events as Skylab and MIR happen, it
is big news and the space agencies take great pains to make
sure this debris reenters over water. Graffeo displays
considerable ignorance concerning these events. He then has
the nerve to state, "We do have the right to demand
the truth about what the hell is going on in our skies!"
(Graffeo Online) Yes, we do have a right to know but Ignatius
seems to not even understand what is going on with our sky in
regards to astronomical and space events. It is hard to inform
people about things they know nothing about.
THE MISSILE ATTACK THAT
WASN'T
Not only rockets generate UFO reports
but meteors too. However, in this case, the meteor was not
described as a UFO but a missile attack! It happened in the
spring of 1991. I was stationed aboard USS Providence (SSN
719) and we had just returned from sea to our homeport in
Groton, Connecticut. The Gulf War had recently ended and many
of our young sailors saw much of the events on the television.
On this particular night, I had the duty and had to tour the
ship at 4AM. Upon going topside to check on the watch there, I
found an excited individual, who claimed a missile had been
launched from the New London side of the river and it had
missed the submarine base. He stated that it must have fallen
down just beyond the hill. Although, he saw it travel across
the sky, the missile was noiseless and no explosion was heard.
Being an amateur astronomer, I quickly determined he had seen
a brilliant meteor. The topside watch on the submarine across
the pier from us also felt they had seen a bright
"falling star" but could not be sure. I informed the
duty officer of the incident and since he agreed with my
conclusions. The young Petty Officer felt we were wrong and
kept a wary eye out for subsequent "attacks" on the
base. There were no fire alarms on base or any indication of
an exploded missile outside the base. The night was very quiet
and not one siren could be heard. The following day, I showed
him the local paper's story about a brilliant fireball seen
all over the New England. Even faced with all the evidence, he
still felt that the meteor was really a missile attack. It was
my first experience in how eyewitnesses to an event can have a
preconception about it, which will affect their interpretation
of what they saw. It also demonstrated how an eyewitness would
be reluctant to admit that they were incorrect in their
assessment even when faced with evidence to the contrary.
THE IDES
OF MARCH 1995 FIREBALL
On March 15, 1995 a brilliant meteor was
seen over the Midwest and eastern US. If an object is seen
over a wide area, we usually are assured that it is a meteor
or satellite reentry. Anyway, we get another report on NUFORC.
Here we read,
"In summary, it
appears that one or more egg-shaped objects, radiating
intensely bright green, blue-green, and yellow light, and
periodically spewing out a cloud of sparks, streaked over at
least seven states, stopping from time to time, and the whole
event occurred in a matter of minutes!! "
(Davenport, Ides Online)
Or perhaps the individuals made their
reports a little out of time with each other. The event
happened at the same time but the times were a bit off since
each of the reported times were not synchronized. If NUFORC
uses their own clocks for synchronization, it is hard to
actually get a feel for the exact time of the event. Each
report would come in and the only way to get a feel for the
time of the event is by actually asking the reporter. If he
says 10:15 or 10:16, who is to say their clock was exact? As
for the reports, there were some interesting comments:
The first call we
received was from Cannis City, FL, reporting that two males
were walking along railroad tracks near that town and were
stunned to see a luminous, white disc-shaped object streak
across the sky, pass below or near several aircraft in the
night sky, appear to ascend back up into the sky, and
disappear to the north. "
(Davenport, Ides Online)
A young woman called to
report that, after visiting with her mother in Westover, WV,
she had just sat in the driver's seat of her car to leave,
when a bright light had streaked silently over her car at a
breath-taking velocity. She added that as she glanced up at
the light, she thought she could make out the outline of an
"egg-shaped" object imbedded in the orb of bright
light. The back portion of the object was bright yellow.
" (Davenport, Ides
Online)
The third call we
received minutes later from a gentleman in Jackson, TN, who
reported witnessing a blue-green "cloud of light"
hovering in the night sky. He had seen it streak from the
northwest beneath, he thought, almost solid overcast, hover
for approximately 30 or 40 seconds, during which time he could
almost see some kind of object apparently imbedded in the
cloud of light. The object then began to drift generally to
the southwest, the caller reported, at which time it belched
out a large "cloud" of sparks, and then streaked
southwest, quickly disappearing from sight. "
(Davenport, Ides Online)
As they were driving
west (at a heading of approximately 250 degrees magnetic) on
Westford Avenue (?), approaching the exit for Chain Bridge
Road, the father and daughter both simultaneously observed an
bright object, apparently at some distance from them, streak
down out of the sky almost directly ahead of them, descending
at approximately 70-80 degrees from the horizontal plane. They
both expected to observe some kind of explosion when the
object reached ground level, but nothing happened! Rather than
explode, the object simply disappeared from
sight--uneventfully-- when it reached the horizon... "
(Davenport, Ides Online)
Sounds intriguing but I found this in
the Fireball data center (FIDAC) on line.
1995 Mar 16 04 27 UT
Solar longitude J2000: 355.189deg
Magnitude: -10 Zenithal magnitude: -12
Location: St. Louis Co., MO (USA) (090
deg 20'40'' W, 38deg 34'20'' N)
First sighting: alpha=093deg,
delta=+09deg
End sighting: alpha=132deg, delta=-35deg
Duration: 18 seconds Color: ye-wh-or-rd
Trail: visible for 5s
Persistent train: none
Fragmentation: none
Velocity: 3deg/sec
Sound: none
Observer: J. Bentz (FIDAC
Online)
The magnitude of -12 was unusual and
equates to full moon brightness. This casts shadows and will
stun even experienced observers. The duration of 18 seconds is
pretty long for a meteor but not out of the ordinary. It
appears our witnesses were just viewing a brilliant meteor.
However, Davenport does not post any of these reports in his
database. He only posts the summary, which is devoid of any
times. I can only assume by the descriptions given and the
above report is of the same event. They do appear to be
similar. Just in case you are confused by the date, it is the
date Universal Time, which is based on Greenwich Mean Time.
0427 on 16 Mar is equivalent to 1127PM on 15 March.
THE CASE
OF THE BRILLIANT METEOR OF 3 OCTOBER 1996
This occurred over the western US and
many of the reports had misperceptions. Only one report (from
Santa Fe, NM) existed in the NUFORC database and it stated:
Thought it was a plane
coming FROM the SE (moving NNW), it moved at a very regular
plane-like speed. Felt it might have been a military or
civilian plane coming to a smooth CRASH. But it was apparent
it was a BIG plane and going too fast to make such a maneuveur
without hitting I-25. There is only a small airport in SFE and
it was not headed there. Pulled over on I-25, fearing it was
going to cross our path. It was HUGE, rectangular, like a
LADDER on it's side: two parallel rows of white lights
connected by "rungs" of white lights. It then
stopped and SHOT perpendicular to itself at an AMAZING SPEED.
(Davenport, Sightings Online)
This does not sound like a meteor but it
was at the same time that others made a report about a meteor.
It is highly likely that this observer, excited by his
observation, made a highly misperceived and misconceived
report. The conclusion by the witness that it could not have
been a meteor and that he reported it three years later
indicates there was several reasons for the error. One, the
delay of the report probably made the individual add details
and the second is this individuals strong emotional desire to
ridicule the explanation that it was a meteor. NUFORC added
the following note to this report:
We have other dramatic
reports on file about this incident. At least 7 vehicles
stopped on I-25 to look at an object estimated to be "as
long as a football field. One teenager is reported to us to
have been so upset by the event, that he was taken to a
hospital emergency room for treatment. A senior engineer at
JPL in Pasadena, CA, was witness to this event, as well. The
object was reported by the press to be a
"meteorite." We believe this to be a severely flawed
conclusion. (Davenport, Sightings
Online)
There were no reports in the FIDAC
database. However, it is very limited and the date of the
sighting was just after the full moon (the moon was waning
towards last quarter). The amount of meteor observers
recording data during this time period is very reduced.
THE CASE
OF THE JULY 10, 1998 FIREBALL
Another fireball case occurred in the
United Kingdom. Some witnesses correctly identified this one
but it seems that UFOlogists did not want to let this one go.
It left a brilliant train that lasted over an hour. The train
changed shape (as trains will do when they last for
significant periods of time) and formed a "question
mark" or "Z" shape. The train lasted for over
an hour and the UFOMIND website was full of speculation and
assertions that it could not have been a meteor. However, the
worst comment came from Joe Trainor, the editor of a weekly
report called "UFO Roundup", who stated, "Excuse
me, but luminous meteor trails last between five and ten
seconds--twenty seconds tops. They do not persist in the sky
for over an hour. Whatever this phenomenon was, it was no
meteor" (Trainor Online). I waited for a few days and
not one person corrected this individual. I sent him e-mail
and gave him a few references to look at to correct his lack
of understanding. His response was that he would correct it in
the next issue of his UFO Updates newsletter. He then retorted
that a meteor train that lasted over an hour would have to be
a record. He was more willing to believe that it was an
authentic UFO despite evidence to the contrary. The correction
never appeared in his newsletter.
THE CASE
OF THE AUGUST 15,1999 FIREBALL
This was another meteor that was widely
seen over a large area of the west. There were eleven reports
in the NUFORC database. There was no "airship
effect" because of the short duration of the event (only
a few seconds). However, the "excited" witnesses
again made some rather interesting reports. My favorite sounds
like the individual must have been in his early teens.
as i was saying that i
see that the sky is lit up and i was thinking cool lightening
rock on and my mom is just looking up and she kinda slowed
down and we're both kinda staring at the sky and everything
was silent the sky stayed lit up for awhile(perhaps 10 seconds
if that) and i looked at my mom and i was going to say
something but then i turn my head towards my window for some
reason and i see this huge and i mean HUGE trail kinda looked
like millons and zillons of sparklers coming down it was long
then it just exploded it was brillant, it lit up the sky more
i dunno how to explain it it was like first the sky lit up
then it went dark then the explosion came and lit up the sky
like daylight the explosion(thats the best way i know how to
call it an explosion) was like a white yellow orange type
colour all rolled into one but the center of it was white and
bright almost as if the sun was falling it came down super
fast but when it exploded it slowed down after it exploded it
was all normal again no trails of like stuff falling down it
just stop as if nothing ever happened it was at an angle when
it was falling but before it exploded it went straight.
(Davenport, Sightings Online)
On Art Bell, Peter Davenport made
several highly erroneous statements when interviewing
witnesses. He stated the object moved too fast to be a meteor
based on the fact the meteor moved from the zenith to the
horizon in only a few seconds. Sorry to tell Peter that he
needs to do more meteor observing and understand the concepts
involved. This is not that unusual at all and to draw such
conclusions indicates Peter is more interested in selling UFOs
than doing real research.
THE
NOVEMBER 16, 1999 FIREBALL
On November 16, 1999, a brilliant
fireball was seen over the Midwest and eastern United States.
Observations of the event were varied. The duration varied
from a few seconds to 1-2 minutes and the time of observation
varied from on the hour to up to half past the hour. Actual
time seems to concentrate at 5 minutes past the hour and the
majority of the observations pointed towards duration of 10-20
seconds. The observations in the NUFORC database were
extremely varied. Davenport agreed that it was more than
likely a fireball but could not understand the varied reports.
Perhaps he should have read Dr. Hartmann's accounts on the
Zond IV incident. There were several reports involving the
"airship effect" in the NUFORC database.
From what we could
tell as it glided over the treetops, it was in my estimation
at least 60 feet long and narrow. Cigar shaped, traveling
about 20-25 feet in the air at about 20 mph. When we first saw
it, my father recalled the meteor shower expected in 2 days,
but as it went by, we realized it was too close to the ground,
and definitely not fading. It also traveled in a steady
straight line with respect to the horizon. The lights
themselves were almost like white light. Some seemed
stationary on the object while others streaked by with the
continuous movement of the object, sort of like a trail along
side. It was like a long skinny bus moving through the sky.
(Davenport, Sightings
Online)
it
first apeared like a large plane with a row of windows. I
thought it was a plane atempting to land on the highway. As it
grew closer i realized the object was to large to be a plane.
In addition it had no flashing lights or landing lights. It
was very long in length, possibly 200' to 500' feet. It had a
row of what apeared to be windows yellow orange in color, with
several lights in the front and rear the same color. It seamed
to slow as it got closer to my truck, almost directly in
front, about 1/4 mile away. It dipped down behind some trees,
and dissapeared. (Davenport,
Sightings Online)
I noticed how
black the sky was and a few stars and saw something shaped
like a rectangle, like the size of the windows on this form
that we use to fill out information. I was travelling about 70
MPH and saw this shaped travelling in the sky along side of
the car. I thought it was a shooting star, but it didn't have
a tail and it was airborne too long. It never disappeared in
the sky!!!! As I slowed down, the object got closer and I was
able to see it much clearer. This object had several windows
that were seperated by some kind of bar and very bright
lights. I was stunned by what I saw and pulled off the road to
get a better look, but The craft disappeared. (Davenport,
Sightings Online)
Hartmann related the Zond IV data to the
infamous Chiles-Whitted sighting in 1948. His conclusion was
that a meteor was the cause for the 1948 event. Although space
debris can usually produce similar reports to the Chiles-Whitted
event, meteor events are less likely to do so. Most people who
conclude a fireball is a UFO refer to them as being
"disc-shaped" or "tear-drop shaped".
However, if a meteor breaks up, as in the November 16 event,
the necessary illusion similar is now available. Eyewitnesses
now can perceive a dark object with lighted windows and the
similarity between these reports and the Chiles-Whitted
sighting is readily apparent.
CONCLUSIONS
Dr. Hartmann is correct
in his evaluation of misperceptions and the limitations of
eyewitnesses. It appears that a majority of the reports filed
with UFO centers also are highly erroneous. Dr. Hartmann is
also correct in the fact that the more excited the individual
is, the more likely they are to submit a UFO report. A UFO
forum on line or a phone hotline is a magnet for exaggerated
reports. Why do UFOlogists not recognize this? It is probably
due to their desire to accept such events at face value and
not attempt to discriminate what is fact and what is fantasy.
|